Keep Your Friends Close, And Your Enemies Unarmed

Hillary is being strongly considered for Secretary of State -- possibly having already been offered the job.

Let's assume that President-elect Obama is fully aware that Mrs. Clinton wants his job. Let's assume he knows she may not plan to wait 8 years to make another go at it. We must then conclude that he believes he has more to gain from nominating her to this position than he has to lose. How can he believe this?

He is perhaps obsessing over this desire to prove that he is above politics and can persuade even his rivals to follow him. That his strength of leadership and his charismatic personality will overwhelm any ill intentions.

Having conquered the largest empire in human history, I can assure you that there are political battles to be won along the way. You cannot be above politics, or you will find yourself tumbling over it. And if his life ambitions do not include political battles, he has found himself in the wrong line of work.

So, who do you put in the position of Secretary of State, and where do you put a person like Mrs. Clinton? For the real power positions, the ones that put people in position to really threaten you, always place a person with absolutely zero possibility of upward movement. Someone who would be nobody without you, and will be nobody again when you are gone.

A quick look back will confirm this: Condoleezza Rice, Colin Powell, Madeleine Albright, Warren Christopher, and so on. I did not say these were unaccomplished people -- that is not the point. But none of them can achieve higher office. The first two are too liberal to succeed in their own party, the second two are simply not attractive enough to run for a higher office. And with the exception of Christopher, all owe most of their careers to the president who nominated them (or his father, ahem).

There is one position even more dangerous than Secretary of State, and that of course is Attorney General. The list: Michael Mukasey, Alberto Gonzales, John Ashcroft, Janet Reno. Again, long term loyalties and no hope for advancing.

6 of the first 15 Presidents were former Secretary of States, and 0 of the last 29! Did we learn something? Any bets on whether the 45th President will be a former Secretary of State? Attorney Generals have not fared so well, but prior to the last 50 years, that position has nothing like the power it has now.

Some readers have asked, "What can Hillary do as Obama's Secretary of State that will hurt him and help her?"

Rest assured, dear readers, you could spend years pondering that question, the Clintons can invent 10 new answers over tea.

If your rivals have potential, make them the Secretaries of Energy and Transportation. Places where they'll only be noticed in the event of failure. Better to name Bill Ayers Attorney General and Jeremiah Wright the Secretary of State.

Bad News For Bike Manufacturers

I am reading frequently that the closing of GM (executives claim, dubiously, that bankruptcy is not an option, that it's bailout or die) will cause complete devastation to the entire auto industry. Not just car manufacturers, but suppliers, dealers, repair shops, road construction crews, and so on.

I have bad news for Schwinn. As much as I'd like to see Americans get more daily exercise, this notion of the disappearing American car is complete fiction.

The story they feed the news outlets goes like this. GM goes down, and nobody can ramp up production to replace the GM cars. So the suppliers fail. When the suppliers fail, Ford and Chrysler (which is now a German company, not that anyone has noticed) fail because they have no more parts. So all the dealerships fail, and so does everyone else.

Let's assume that GM can't go into bankruptcy (a silly assumption, but let's assume it anyway). They would then sell all those shiny auto factories to ... who? To the highest bidder, as always. Probably not Ford, or Chrysler LLC, since they have no money. But Honda and Toyota could buy those factories, along with the trademarks, designs, patents, and everything else. Or maybe someone completely different. I suspect Mitt Romney could put together some investors. The point is that someone will pay something, however small, for GM's assets.

So now someone has the factories, designs, trademarks, and patents. What they don't have is the crippling debt, or the union contacts. Will they have trouble finding employees to work at a competitive (non-union) rate? Not a chance. And if Michigan law or union thugs get in the way, the factories will be torn down and moved to Ohio, or Georgia, or Alabama. (And now is a great time for disruptions -- demand is down and inventories are up.)

People want cars. They need them. They'll get them. They will be built.

I don't think many people realize that the conditions at the "Big 3" are preventing competitive forces from working across the industry. The North American Toyota and Honda factories don't experience anything like the competitive pressures that they would face if the factories in Detroit were forced to compete. This is the time for that to happen.

Demand it.

The Two Questions I Get Most Often

In the wake of the elections, I'm getting another onslaught of attacks by Ron Paul supporters blaming me for their candidate's failure to secure the Republican nomination, and thus for the success of the Democrats, and therefore everything bad that they believe will ensure over the next four years.

Ahem. I've been blamed for worse.

So the most popular question I get is from them. It is one version or another of, "Oh yeah, Mongrel, what's a dollar worth then? Isn't it just a promissory note to pay back another meaningless dollar?"

No. One U.S. dollar is, in essence, a share in the U.S. economy. It's the legal tender of U.S. economic activity. As the economy grows, the value grows. When more paper is printed, it is analogous to a stock split, only you don't get the split shares. At least not directly.

Now for the second question: "Why is there evil and suffering in the world?"

Evil is in the world for the same reason that Napolean was at Waterloo. This world is the chosen battleground for the destruction of evil. That is why it was made. Not for constant comfort and ease, but as a final battleground.

Do not shirk from the fight. I am your Khan. I am your Khagan. Be strong.